Risk of ruin calculator
Probability of hitting your ruin point before doubling.
Estimated risk of ruin
0.7%
Result
Edge per trade
25.0%
Risk of ruin (approx.)
0.7%
Formula
Kelly-style approximation; assumes independent trades of equal risk
What this tells you?
The question every risk-of-ruin calculation is really asking:
at your current win rate, payoff ratio and risk per trade, what are the odds you blow the account before you double it?
Small changes in risk-per-trade move this number nonlinearly.
Worked example
50% win rate, 1.5:1 average win/loss, 2% risk per trade, 50% ruin point.
Edge per trade ≈ (0.5×1.5) − 0.5 = 0.25 — a real but modest edge.
At 2% risk, the modelled risk of ruin is low; push risk per trade to 10% with the same edge and it rises sharply, .
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Common mistake: a positive edge does not make ruin impossible — position size decides how much of that edge survives variance. This is exactly why the position size calculator starts from a risk percentage, not from conviction.